Category: Global Directional Trends
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VIX® gained 140%: Investors were too complacent
Several months ago I started sharing some of my observations about the VIX ( CBOE Volatility Index). The VIX had gotten to a level I considered low, which implied to me that investors were too… Read More
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Today Was the Kind of Panic Selling I Was Looking For
I mentioned in “Fear is Driving Stocks Down, or is Declining Stocks Driving Fear?” that falling prices could lead to panic selling and it may require some panic selling to push prices low enough to bring… Read More
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Fear is Driving Stocks Down, or is Declining Stocks Driving Fear?
The last time I pointed out a short-term measure of extreme investor sentiment was August 4, see “Extreme Fear is Now the Return Driver“. At that time, popular stock indexes had declined -3% or more… Read More
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Trend Change in Dollar, International Stocks, Gold?
Directional trends tend to persist. When a price is trending, it’s more likely to continue than to reverse. A directional trend is a drift up or down. For example, we can simply define a uptrend… Read More
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Global Market Trends and Returns 3rd Quarter 2014
The end of a quarter is a popular time for investors to review what happened over the past three months. Below we review some three-month price trends to get an idea of the direction and… Read More
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Global Market Returns Year to Date 2014
After yesterday, stock indexes haven’t made much progress in the first seven months of 2014. At the beginning of the year everyone seemed to talk about how much the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gone… Read More
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VIX Shows Volatility Still Low, But Trending
It seemed that many of the commentators who write and talk about the VIX started talking as though it would stay down a long time. Of course, that’s as much a signal as anything that… Read More
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Global Market Trends Mid Year 2014
I’m not one to put much emphasis on judging trends across arbitrary time frames like “mid year” or a specific calendar year, but it’s still interesting to see how global trends are playing out relative… Read More
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The VIX, as I see it…
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached a low point last week not seen since 2007 as evidenced by the chart below. To see a closer view of the last period, below I included the last… Read More
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Declining (Low) Volatility = Rising (High) Complacency
When we speak of trends, we want to recognize a trend can be rising or declining, high or low. These things are subjective, because there is infinite ways to define the direction of a trend,… Read More