Category: Global Directional Trends
-
Stock Market Peak? A Tale of Two Markets
One of the early warning signs that a bull market in stocks is nearing its end is increasing selectivity. As more investors begin to believe a peak may be near based on statistical analysis or… Read More
-
Leading stocks are lagging
As another example of the observation I pointed out in Adapting to Change… and Volatility, below are today’s stock index price changes. Below are the price changes for the top 10 highest ranked stocks. Clearly, leading… Read More
-
The new normal is a roller coaster of one bubble bursting after another.
Neural networks are computer systems inspired by an animals’ central nervous system that is capable of machine learning and pattern recognition. Neural networks can be very powerful systems for identifying and classification of things. If… Read More
-
Global Macro: Russia was already a bear market
On Monday, the Russia stock market, as measured by the MSCI Russia Capped Index, declined over -8% with the headlines filled with news about their military actions. Based on that index of stocks, the Russian… Read More
-
Global Macro: Heavy Losses in Russia
Looking around the globe, the downward drift seems to be in Russia today. Egypt is a close second. data source: http://www.etf.com Read More
-
Trajectory and Directional Price Trends
Thinking about the meaning of trajectory and how it relates to directional price trends. A trajectory is the path followed by a projectile flying or an object moving under the action of given forces. For… Read More
-
Oh seven, eight, and nine: Remembering the Last Bear Market
I’ve been working on a report for our clients about the current conditions of global markets and how we’ll know when it changes from positive to negative. I’m calling it something like “What a Market… Read More
-
Is the Bull Topping Process Starting?
There are several things that unfold as a market begins the topping process. While large cap indexes may continue to make new highs, the market becomes more and more selective. We’ll see that in breadth… Read More
-
The Fed: What Happened Next…
A month ago in “The Fed: What’s going to happen next? I suggested that you might consider that it doesn’t matter what the Fed does – it only matters how the drivers of price react to… Read More
-
Investors are Complacent
Implied volatility, the amount of “insurance premium” implied by the price of options, continues to suggest that investors are becoming very complacent. When the VIX is high or rising, it says the market expects the… Read More