Category: Investor Sentiment
Investor Sentiment is about investor behavior and their oscillation between fear and greed.
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Observations of the Stock Market Trend, Bond Market, and Investor Sentiment
Nothing drives investor sentiment like a strong price trend. The S&P 500 stock index is down over -20% this year, and it was down -24% YTD just two weeks ago. The stock index peaked at… Read More
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Stock Market Ahead of the Fed, and What’s Likely to Happen Next
In the last observation, I shared “Implied volatility is indicating another possible volatility expansion” I pointed out that Implied volatility is indicating another possible volatility expansion. The Volatility Index VIX was at 21, implying a range… Read More
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The weight of evidence is becoming increasingly bearish for the US stock market
“The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.” Stock indexes making higher highs and higher lows is a good thing – until it isn’t. I run a combination of systems. Most of them… Read More
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A lot of talk about the NASDAQ being 21% above its 200 day moving average
There’s a lot of talk about the NASDAQ being 21% above its 200 day moving average, so… here’s my 2 cents on the matter. Yes indeed, the NASDAQ is over 21% above its 200 day… Read More
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Volatility, Put/Call Volume, and such
I see some hedging demand in the options market. The ratio between Index puts and calls doesn’t get much higher than this. The CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio is elevated at 1.86, indicating probable hedging in… Read More
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Global Macro: Signs of bullish sentiment across the globe
In some cases, the recovery of economic and market trends are as impressive as the rate in which they fell. The so-called “panic button” indicator, TED Spread, is back down to low levels. The chart… Read More
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So far, 2020 has shown us some fine examples of risk, investor sentiment, divergence, and volatility
Implied volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has trended up about 50% since the most recent low on June 5th. I’ll call it a moderate volatility expansion. Normally a volatility expansion from… Read More
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Individual investors are screaming bearish
The US Investor Sentiment survey shows individual investors are the most negative about the direction of the stock market they’ve been the past five years. In fact, the last time investors were this bearish was… Read More
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It’s not so different this time, except in ’69, they didn’t miss the Woodstock Music Festival
Did you know the Woodstock Music Festival in 1969 took place during a global pandemic? It killed about 100,000 people in the U.S. and a million worldwide. According to Jeffrey A. Tucker, the Editorial Director… Read More