Category: Investor Sentiment
Investor Sentiment is about investor behavior and their oscillation between fear and greed.
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Investor sentiment is dialed up with stock trends
I believe there are many factors that drive stock prices and one of them is investor sentiment. However, enthusiasm and panic can also reach extremes, which drives the opposite trend. When investors are extremely bullish… Read More
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You probably want to invest in stocks
You probably want to invest in stocks right now, I bet. If you are already invested in stocks, you probably want to be more aggressive in investing in stocks. Maybe it’s selling bonds to buy… Read More
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What I’m reading into the new year
“Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it” One of the advantages of writing observations in real-time is the ability to go back and read them with perfect hindsight. We know that global asset… Read More
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After a strong year like 2019, investors should prepare for what could be the opposite in 2020 and it doesn’t seem they are
After nearly a -20% waterfall decline last October through December, in “An exhaustive analysis of the U.S. stock market” a year ago today I wrote: “Someday in the future, stock investors will be giddy again… Read More
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Keeping the mind right with investor sentiment indicators
Investors oscillate between the fear of missing out and the fear of losing money. After their portfolio trends up, they extrapolate recent gains into the future. After their portfolio falls, they extrapolate recent loss into… Read More
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What really drives stock prices down?
What really drives stock prices? The price of stocks, just like groceries, is driven by supply and demand of people “the market” buying and selling. What drives stock prices and the stock market really is… Read More
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A volatility expansion seems imminent
On November 16th, about two weeks ago, I shared an observation in “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions” that implied and realized volatility had reached such a low level we should… Read More
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By and large, the stock market is correlated with consumer sentiment
I’ve shared some observations about investor sentiment this past week as sentient indicators and surveys have reached an extreme level of optimism. When sentiment reaches an extreme, we should prepare for it to swing the… Read More
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Can an optimistic investor sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher?
Someone asked: Can an optimistic investor sentiment in AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher? Another commented: The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is just over its long term average, so it has room to run. Of… Read More
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Investor optimism is reaching extremes
Ok, so this isn’t anything new. I just discussed it last week in “Investor sentiment signals greed is driving stocks as the U.S. stock market reaches short term risk of a pullback.” The sentiment indicators keep… Read More