Elite Eight stocks (META, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA) now make up 28.4% of the S&P 500 market cap
While the options market expects lower volatility over the next 30 days, active risk managers and tactical investment managers pursuing risk-adjusted asymmetric investment returns may be inclined to hedge off exposure while protection is a better deal.
RSI can be informative in sideways, non-trending market states; it changes to a breakout momentum indicator in trending markets.
Only time will tell if the Call Wall, expirations, and long-vol positioning today has more impact or if there's enough momentum to drive it higher, but we'll be watching to see how it all unfolds.
Mega-cap tech ( AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOGL META ) market share of the S&P 500 is now 22%, but this chart from Goldman Sachs suggests the top 4 stocks in 2000 showed us market leadership is difficult to maintain...
Mega-cap tech ( $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META ) outperformance and earnings growth show that mega-cap tech has outperformed the S&P 500 by 28pp in 2023.
Decomposing the economic cycle into four stages, we are in the slowdown phase, just before recession.
How did the stock market perform during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis? the S&P 500 fell 17% during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis.
How does the stock market perform after Fed interest rate hike cycles? The last seven times the Fed increased interest rates, the average gain was 16% twelve months later. It's a small sample size.
Sometimes the markets tell us how to invest our money for asymmetric investment returns.
The regional bank sector breaching below the lower channel of three standard deviations suggests the the downtrend in regional banks are an outlier.
Investor Sentiment: The Market Climbs a Wall of Worry
The U.S. Stock Market Trend Reversed Down
What are the Risks and Limitations of Backtesting Investment and Trading Strategies
These charts show the S&P 500 stock index over 12, 9, 6, and 3-month momentum, or rate of change, and the directional trend is labeled with simple trend lines.
The S&P 500 stock market index prints higher lows to resume its uptrend over the last six months.
It's the southern states like Tennessee, Texas, Geogia, North Carolina, and Florida, along with some conservative western states like Wyoming and Nebraska that have the lowest debt per capita.
The directional trend of the e 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yield with 3 standard deviations shows the trend in interest rates has made a material breakout of its historical range of the past 270 months (22.5 years.)
Renaissance Technologies, Considered the "Best Money Manager on Earth", Uses Technical Indicators to Drive its Automated Trading Systems
Sector trend following, momentum, and volatility