ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
In the U.S. Sector Trend Following Matrix we highlight the percentage of stocks above their 5, 20, 50, 100, 150, and 200 day moving averages of the S&P 500 index and a breakdown of each of its sectors.
Elite Eight stocks (META, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA) now make up 28.4% of the S&P 500 market cap
While the options market expects lower volatility over the next 30 days, active risk managers and tactical investment managers pursuing risk-adjusted asymmetric investment returns may be inclined to hedge off exposure while protection is a better deal.
RSI can be informative in sideways, non-trending market states; it changes to a breakout momentum indicator in trending markets.
Only time will tell if the Call Wall, expirations, and long-vol positioning today has more impact or if there's enough momentum to drive it higher, but we'll be watching to see how it all unfolds.
Mega-cap tech ( AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOGL META ) market share of the S&P 500 is now 22%, but this chart from Goldman Sachs suggests the top 4 stocks in 2000 showed us market leadership is difficult to maintain...
Mega-cap tech ( $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META ) outperformance and earnings growth show that mega-cap tech has outperformed the S&P 500 by 28pp in 2023.
Decomposing the economic cycle into four stages, we are in the slowdown phase, just before recession.
How did the stock market perform during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis? the S&P 500 fell 17% during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis.
How does the stock market perform after Fed interest rate hike cycles? The last seven times the Fed increased interest rates, the average gain was 16% twelve months later. It's a small sample size.