ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
While most investment managers using fundamental earnings growth and valuation like this for decision making. we primarily focus on the price trend direction, relative strength, momentum, and volatility to determine when to buy or sell, but we still monitor these fundamental metrics.
The MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate) is a market-implied measure of bond volatility similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) for stocks. Some consider it fear in the bond market, as in uncertainty about interest rates.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term Gold ETF options. SPDR GLD ETF, the largest physically backed gold ETF in the world, is sponsored by World Gold Trust Services and listed since 2004.
The Philly Fed survey is a measure of regional manufacturing growth, also known as the "Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey". When the index is above zero, it indicates factory-sector growth, and when below zero, it indicates contraction. In global macro, a rising Philly Fed survey is considered a signal that a bull market is on the horizon.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its probability for a US recessions further, giving just a 20% chance of recession.
How global capital markets interact with each other is one of the most useful parts of global macro. US Dollar is in a downtrend but statistically oversold short-term.
Probabilistically, what's most likely to happen next is inertia; staying the same. The second highest is continuing the recent trend. The third is to reverse into a countertrend.
Macro is top of mind in market phases like this, when the Federal Reserve FOMC has been raising interest rates in response evolving macroeconomic data to tame inflation.
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, so we monitor macro indicators.
Americans celebrate Independence Day on July 4th to commemorate the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. This historic document was a formal statement by the American colonies announcing their separation from Great Britain and their intention to establish a new nation, the United States of America.