ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
A position with asymmetric risk/reward is one in which the possible profit is larger than the potential loss, or the size of the expected gain is greater than the magnitude of the loss.
I pointed out in Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up the US Dollar had reached a statistically oversold level, setting up a high probability for a countrend.
According to Citi, the panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment. It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market.
Sector trends offer dispersion: over the last 10 years, the average difference between the best-performing and worst-performing sectors has been 45% per year.
The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points but gave no indication of its intentions for the September meeting. Powell stated that the FOMC has not decided to hike rates every other meeting and will instead take it meeting by meeting.
S&P GSCI® Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities.
While most investment managers using fundamental earnings growth and valuation like this for decision making. we primarily focus on the price trend direction, relative strength, momentum, and volatility to determine when to buy or sell, but we still monitor these fundamental metrics.
The MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate) is a market-implied measure of bond volatility similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) for stocks. Some consider it fear in the bond market, as in uncertainty about interest rates.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term Gold ETF options. SPDR GLD ETF, the largest physically backed gold ETF in the world, is sponsored by World Gold Trust Services and listed since 2004.
The Philly Fed survey is a measure of regional manufacturing growth, also known as the "Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey". When the index is above zero, it indicates factory-sector growth, and when below zero, it indicates contraction. In global macro, a rising Philly Fed survey is considered a signal that a bull market is on the horizon.