Goldman Sachs has lowered its probability for a US recessions further, giving just a 20% chance of recession.

How global capital markets interact with each other is one of the most useful parts of global macro. US Dollar is in a downtrend but statistically oversold short-term.

Probabilistically, what's most likely to happen next is inertia; staying the same. The second highest is continuing the recent trend. The third is to reverse into a countertrend.

Macro is top of mind in market phases like this, when the Federal Reserve FOMC has been raising interest rates in response evolving macroeconomic data to tame inflation.

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, so we monitor macro indicators.

Americans celebrate Independence Day on July 4th to commemorate the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. This historic document was a formal statement by the American colonies announcing their separation from Great Britain and their intention to establish a new nation, the United States of America.

In the U.S. Sector Trend Following Matrix we highlight the percentage of stocks above their 5, 20, 50, 100, 150, and 200 day moving averages of the S&P 500 index and a breakdown of each of its sectors.

Elite Eight stocks (META, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA) now make up 28.4% of the S&P 500 market cap

While the options market expects lower volatility over the next 30 days, active risk managers and tactical investment managers pursuing risk-adjusted asymmetric investment returns may be inclined to hedge off exposure while protection is a better deal.

RSI can be informative in sideways, non-trending market states; it changes to a breakout momentum indicator in trending markets.