ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
TailDex® is a measure of the market’s expectations for an extreme event, often called a “tail event” or a “black swan,” which is a drop of at least three standard deviations.
VXX and VIXY usually move in tandem due to their similar tracking of VIX futures, but in 2022, Barclays' suspension of new VXX issuance created an unprecedented divergence. The March 2022 event highlighted the risks of trading ETNs versus ETFs—while VIXY functioned properly throughout the year, VXX became detached from reality, trading at a significant premium before finally reverting.
Be a trend follower; always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.
When short-term interest rates fall, we can expect the dollar may fall.
Financial crises occur about once a decade, with each one getting larger than the last.
Trend analysis of the U.S. stock market trend using the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
US Pending Home Sales Crash By Most On Record
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, needs to hold this key level to retain the short term uptrend.
JP Morgan's outlook focuses on three very different scenarios, with a baseline (40% probability) of seeing the building drag from an expected 5% fed funds rate and a rising US dollar as sufficient to tip the economy into a mild recession late next year.
The flash PMI data for November disappointed and looked pretty pessimistic.