ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Technology Select Sector Index is trending upward with strong momentum and low volatility. Monitoring for a breakout or pullback at the channel’s upper boundary and watching the RSI for overbought signals will be crucial in assessing the continuation or possible consolidation of this trend.
This analysis can be helpful in assessing current bond market volatility expectations, especially when correlated with broader market conditions or other volatility indices, like the VIX for equities. Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into specific aspects.
The U.S. Dollar Index shows signs of a potential breakout from its downtrend, with elevated volatility and moderate bullish momentum. Confirming the breakout and monitoring RSI for sustained strength will be key to understanding the likelihood of a new uptrend.
The FTSE China A50 Index is showing signs of indecision within an elevated volatility environment, with potential support at the middle of the channel. Monitoring RSI and ATR will be essential to gauge momentum shifts and changes in volatility conditions.
Gold is approaching a critical level within its uptrend channel with increased volatility and weakened momentum. Watching the channel boundary and RSI for reversal signals will be key in assessing the potential for a trend continuation or reversal.
This chart of the S&P Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) includes a linear regression channel, RSI, and ATR percentage indicators to analyze its current trend, momentum, and volatility.
In "We Will Soon Find Out," Ray Dalio explores what he sees as a pivotal moment in the U.S.'s political and social trajectory, which he frames through his theory of the "Big Cycle." According to Dalio, the country is in "Stage 5" of this cycle, where internal divisions and systemic stresses are high, and he suggests we are on the cusp of "Stage 6," a period he associates with civil war or intense societal upheaval.
Understanding how presidential administrations influence economic indicators is key to assessing their impact on American prosperity and stability. The chart provided compares various economic metrics under the Trump and Biden administrations, spanning inflation, wage growth, income metrics, job growth, deficits, and other critical factors. This article provides an analysis of these data points, emphasizing the contrast in economic performance and policy outcomes between the two administrations.
The recent VIX term structure chart reveals interesting insights into market sentiment around volatility heading into the 2024 U.S. election. Currently, we observe an initial drop in volatility expectations for December, followed by a steady rise through mid-2025. This structure suggests that while traders anticipate relatively calm conditions immediately surrounding the election, they expect volatility to pick up significantly afterward.
In 2024 U.S. corporate stock buybacks have reached unprecedented levels, making them an essential consideration for investment managers pursuing asymmetric returns. The latest insights from Goldman Sachs reveal that buyback activity, led by U.S. corporates, remains a significant force in the equity markets, promising to influence the market dynamics through year-end and beyond.