Category: Asymmetric Risk Reward
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What I learned about Semper Fi from former Tennessee Coach Phillip Fulmer
It may seem odd to hear a U.S. Marines Veteran who never played football under Phil Fulmer say he learned something about the Marine Corps motto “Semper Fi” from the old Tennessee coach. Afterall, Semper… Read More
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I don’t always comment on economic indicators, but when I do, it’s a trend like ISM Manufacturing Index
The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors changes in production levels from month to month and is considered an important economic indicator by many global macro investment managers. Some of them consider a level above 50 as… Read More
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Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates a volatility expansion in the near term
Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates wider prices in the near term. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX has increased to 20, which is it’s long term average, suggesting prices will spread out to 20%.… Read More
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What is going on? 3rd Quarter Market Trends and Mean Reversion
The third quarter is now in the past, so I’ll share a few observations of what is going on. First, below is the S&P 500 stock index over the past quarter. For observation purposes, if… Read More
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Divergence between Value, Growth, and Momentum.
There is an interesting divergence today between Momentum, Growth, and Value. Up until now, Value has lagged Growth and Momentum, as seen in this 5-year chart. The underperformance of Value has been a topic of… Read More
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Global Macro observations and the period of indecision ends with an upside breakout in stocks
In the last observation, The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of I shared: Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index over the past six… Read More
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The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of
As I’ve been pointing out all month in August, the stock market is in a period of indecision, that it will eventually break out of. Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index… Read More
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The value of technical analysis of stock market trends
Someone asked; how do you use technical analysis (charting) as an investment manager? I’ll share a simple and succinct example. Below is a chart of a popular stock market index. What do you see when… Read More
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The stock market is holding its breadth… for now
The stocks in the S&P 500 index that are above their 50 day moving average has stopped at the same level it reversed in May. The percent of stocks in up or downtrends is a… Read More
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Argentina stock market loss is a reminder of single country ETF risk
If we looked at the MSCI Argentina ETF on July 4th, its gains year to date were astonishing. Below is a chart of both iShares MSCI Argentina & Global Exposure ETF (AGT) and Global X… Read More