Category: Asymmetric Risk Reward
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What has changed? Global trends, volatility expansion and contraction, plus some rising interest rates
My focus is: What has changed? if I see no change in the direction of the trend of volatility, then we just go with the flow. Realized (historical) and implied volatility (VIX) has settled down… Read More
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Welcome to March! A review of global asset allocation and global markets
In the first two months of 2019 global asset allocation has gained 4% to 8.6%. I use the iShares Core Global Allocation ETFs as a proxy instead of indexes since the ETFs are real world performance including… Read More
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Strong stock market momentum was accompanied by broad participation
Not only has the broad stock market indexes like the S&P 500 advanced sharply with great momentum since late December 2018, but its breadth has also been impressive. The percent of stocks trading above their… Read More
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Putting my short-term technical analysis tactician hat on and hedging off equity risk
I’m dialing in to look at shorter-term technical analysis as my risk management systems are suggesting a risk of a stock market decline is becoming elevated. Zooming in to shorter time frames, the U.S. stock… Read More
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U.S. Stock Market Update
Last week in What’s going to happen next for the U.S. stock market? I shared an observation the U.S. stock index had reached a point I expect to see at least a stall. So far, that’s mostly… Read More
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Asymmetry in the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio suggests hedging
I pointed out yesterday the Stock market internals are signaling an inflection point. On a short term basis, some internal indicators are suggesting the stock market is at a point I expect to see a more significant breakout… Read More
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Stock market internals are signaling an inflection point
Indicators of the internal strength of the market measure the breadth of the market trend using the number of individual stocks participating in a move. On December 24, 2018, I shared my observation in An exhaustive stock… Read More
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Feeling and Doing the Right Thing at the Right Time
Last week I shared the observation that VIX Implied Volatility is Settling Down. The VIX Index is a measure of the market’s expectation of future volatility, so the market is pricing in less volatility from here. However,… Read More
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If fund flow doesn’t show up in price, does it really matter?
“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” It’s a philosophical thought experiment that raises questions about perception and observation. Is sound only… Read More
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Uncharted Territory
Uncharted Territory is trending on @Twitter as the government shutdown becomes the longest in U.S. history. Everything about the future is always uncharted territory. Uncharted is unexplored or unknown. To chart is to map, so uncharted… Read More