Bond Market Volatility Contraction and What it Means

The MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate) is a market-implied measure of bond volatility similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) for stocks.

Some consider it fear in the bond market, as in uncertainty about interest rates.

Bond vol fading down to the low end of its range, nearing the pre-2022 levels again.

What does the MOVE index mean?

Expected volatility, how fast and wide prices spread out, has decreased, so we could assume the bond market is getting more comfortable and less afraid, as the cost of options protection is declining.

Mike Shell