Comparative Analysis of Key Economic Indicators: Trump vs. Biden Administrations
Understanding how presidential administrations influence economic indicators is key to assessing their impact on American prosperity and stability. The Trump vs. Biden-Harris chart from the Job Creators Network provided compares various economic metrics under the Trump and Biden administrations, spanning inflation, wage growth, income metrics, job growth, deficits, and other critical factors.
This article provides an analysis of these data points, emphasizing the contrast in economic performance and policy outcomes between the two administrations.
1. Inflation
- Trump Administration: 7.3%
- Biden Administration: 20.5%
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation, a core economic metric, influences consumer purchasing power and cost of living. Under the Trump administration, inflation was lower, at 7.3%, compared to the Biden administration’s significantly higher 20.5%. This difference reflects the diverse economic challenges each administration faced, including the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions that impacted the Biden administration’s period.
2. Wage Growth and Real Average Wage Growth
- Average Wage Growth
- Trump: 15.0%
- Biden: 18.1%
- Real Average Wage Growth
- Trump: 7.7%
- Biden: -2.4%
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
While average wage growth was higher under the Biden administration at 18.1%, real average wage growth, which factors in inflation, declined by 2.4%. In contrast, real average wages grew by 7.7% under Trump. This suggests that although nominal wages rose during Biden's term, high inflation eroded the purchasing power, resulting in a net decline in real wage growth.
3. Median Income Growth (2017-2019 vs. 2021-2023)
- Real Median Income Growth (%)
- Trump: 10.5%
- Biden: 1.3%
- Real Median Income Growth ($)
- Trump: $7,690
- Biden: $1,050
- Hispanic Real Median Income Growth ($)
- Trump: $6,480
- Biden: $700
- Black Real Median Income Growth ($)
- Trump: $4,670
- Biden: $2,650
- Source: U.S. 2023 Census
The Trump administration saw more robust growth in real median income across the general population, as well as among Hispanic and Black households. Real median income growth was considerably higher for Hispanics and Black Americans under Trump compared to Biden, indicating stronger income growth among minority populations during Trump’s tenure.
4. Gas Prices
- Average Gas Price
- Trump: $2.57
- Biden: $3.58
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Average gas prices were lower under the Trump administration at $2.57, compared to $3.58 under Biden. This increase reflects various factors, including international oil market dynamics, domestic production policies, and the impact of global events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that affected energy prices during Biden’s term.
5. Job Growth
- Overall Job Growth
- Trump: 6,531,000
- Biden: 3,181,000
- Manufacturing Job Growth
- Trump: 414,000
- Biden: 137,000
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The Trump administration saw higher job growth figures, both in overall jobs and manufacturing jobs, even when excluding the pandemic’s drop and bounce-back effects. This suggests a stronger focus or success in job creation strategies, particularly in the manufacturing sector, under Trump.
6. Annual Deficit
- Average Annual Deficit
- Trump: $810 billion
- Biden: $1.63 trillion
- Source: Fiscal Data Treasury.gov
The average annual deficit nearly doubled under the Biden administration, increasing from $810 billion to $1.63 trillion. This expansion in deficit spending may reflect increased government spending during the pandemic recovery period and initiatives aimed at economic relief, infrastructure, and healthcare.
7. Consumer Sentiment
- Consumer Sentiment Average
- Trump: 93.2
- Biden: 68.4
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Consumer sentiment, an indicator of the public’s confidence in the economy, was significantly higher under the Trump administration. This difference could be attributed to factors like inflation, economic uncertainty, and other post-pandemic concerns that may have affected public confidence during Biden’s term.
8. Regulatory Costs and Mortgage Payments
- Regulatory Costs Added
- Trump: $30 billion
- Biden: $1.4 trillion
- Average New Home Mortgage Payment
- Trump: $1,700
- Biden: $2,750
- Source: American Action Forum and CBRE
The regulatory costs added under the Biden administration were substantially higher, reaching $1.4 trillion compared to $30 billion under Trump. This suggests a more regulatory-intensive approach under Biden, potentially aiming for social and environmental goals. Additionally, average new home mortgage payments rose under Biden, influenced by higher interest rates amid efforts to control inflation.
9. Oil Production and Border Security
- Oil Production (Bpd Added from Previous High)
- Trump: 3,346,000
- Biden: 314,000
- Illegal Immigrant Encounters on SW Border
- Trump: 2,034,044
- Biden: 8,404,523
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Oil production gains were higher under Trump, with 3.35 million barrels per day added, compared to 314,000 under Biden. This reflects different energy policies, with the Trump administration favoring increased domestic oil production. Additionally, there was a marked increase in illegal immigrant encounters at the southwest border under Biden, a topic that remains politically charged and complex, involving various social, economic, and policy-driven factors.
Conclusion
This data-driven comparison underscores key economic distinctions between the Trump and Biden administrations. While both administrations faced unique challenges and adopted different policy priorities, the metrics reflect various economic and policy outcomes, impacting American consumers, businesses, and the overall economy. Whether through changes in inflation, wage growth, job creation, or regulatory policies, each administration’s legacy will continue to influence public discourse on economic policy and governance in the years to come.