Goldman Sachs Lowers its US Recession Probability
At Shell Capital, our focus is pure quantitative analysis of price trends, momentum, volatility, and how global markets interact with each other. When it comes to macroeconomics, I resource macro data from firms like our broker and custodian, Goldman Sachs, world renowned for its fundamental macro research.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its probability for a US recessions further, giving just a 20% chance of recession.
In a note to us today, they said:
The probability of a US recession has fallen further as both recent data and ongoing fundamentals point to rapid—and mostly painless—disinflation from here. We don't share the concerns about yield curve inversion as a recession predictor because;
1) the term premium is lower than normal,
2) there is a plausible non-recession path to cuts, and
3) we think rates investors, like forecasters, have yet to take the recent signs of a soft landing fully on board.
Despite notable risks of recession, Goldman Sachs has been right so far, as the other leading global investment banks like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have been bearish, and wrong, so far.
We'll keep messing around, and finding out...
Mike Shell is the founder, President, and Chief Investment Officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of Asymmetry® Managed Portfolios. Shell Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies. Shell Capital provides investment advice and portfolio management to clients with separate accounts at Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions with an investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as investment advice to buy or sell any security. This information does not suggest in any way that any graph, chart, or formula offered can solely guide an investor as to which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or recommendations made by the firm. In the event any past specific recommendations are referred to inadvertently, a list of all recommendations made by the company within at least the prior one-year period may be furnished upon request. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities on the list. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change. Please do not make any investment decisions based on such information, as it is not individualized advice and is subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but are not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. If this website contains information regarding Options Trading, please read the Characteristics & Risks of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD). Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. The views and opinions expressed in Asymmetry® Observations and Asymmetric Investment Returns are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.