The Exit, Not the Entry, Always Determines the Outcome
Having tactically traded through the 1998 Russian crisis and LTCM collapse, the dot-com bubble and crash, the 2007–09 financial crisis, the COVID shock, and everything since, Mike Shell has seen it all.
And one thing never changes: every bull market brings out a new crowd of investors showing off their “big winners.”
They’ll post screenshots of a stock that’s doubled or tripled, pat themselves on the back, and make it sound like this game is easy.
But here’s the thing:
- They’re probably leaving off the losers.
- They don’t mention the stocks they sold for a loss — or worse, the ones still sitting deep in the red.
- And those open profits they’re bragging about? They’re not their money yet. They’re still the market’s money until they sell.
If they don’t lock it in, the market can take it all back — and it often does. That’s not portfolio management, that’s just riding the trend. But trend following requires more than just following the trend — capturing a trend requires selling when it ends.
"The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends." - Ed Seykota
At Shell Capital, we operate a complete system, and a complete system necessarily requires an exit to realize profits.
It’s What You Do After You Buy That Makes All The Difference
Most people think investing success is about picking the right stock. Finding the right entry is nice — but that’s just the start.
“The exit, not the entry, always determines the outcome. The exit determines if you win or lose, and how much you win or lose.” — Mike Shell
That’s why ASYMMETRY® is built on a process, not hunches. We’re not just buying stocks that go up — we’re managing risk and reward across the entire portfolio.
The ASYMMETRY® Portfolio Management Process
Our goal is to produce asymmetric returns — smaller losses, bigger potential gains — through disciplined decisions.
Here’s what that really looks like:
1. What to Buy
We don’t chase tips, memes, or headlines. We systematically select ETFs, stocks, and other instruments with asymmetric risk/reward potential using our systems for entry and exit.
2. When to Sell a Loser
Before we ever enter a position, we know where we’ll exit if it goes against us. That’s how we size the position. Cutting losses is step one in protecting capital.
3. How Much to Buy
We size every position based on risk, not conviction. That keeps one trade from blowing up the portfolio.
4. When to Sell a Laggard
If a position stops trending, loses momentum, or isn’t keeping up with the opportunities we see elsewhere, we rotate the capital into something stronger.
5. When to Sell a Winner
Open profits are just unrealized gains. We take gains systematically — either with trailing stops or by trimming into strength — so winners actually add to portfolio compounding.
Why it Matters
A lot of investors think their biggest problem is “picking better stocks.” But no one knows for sure in advance which stocks will be better, or profitable. It’s always probabilistic, never a sure thing.
The truth is, their problem is they don’t have a system for what to do after they buy.
Portfolio outcomes are driven by what happens next — how you manage risk, when you take gains, and how you keep losers from getting too big.
That’s why ASYMMETRY® is more than just buying stocks that go up. It’s a complete system designed to turn market trends into realized, asymmetric results — not just paper gains.
"Everyone has an exit; it can be predefined like ours, or when you reach your tap-out point. Either way, you decide it." - Mike Shell