Category: ASYMMETRY® Observations

The U.S. Dollar Index ( the “Dixie”) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade… Read More

Few books have been as influential to the mindset of the tactical trader than Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a 1923 roman à clef by American author Edwin Lefèvre. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is told in… Read More

Why investment risk management? Why now? Most investment advisors will tell you passive asset allocation is the way to achieve your investment objectives, but we couldn’t disagree more.  I believe investments and markets require active… Read More

For this trend analysis of the U.S. stock market trend, I’ll use the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index as a proxy.  1. So far support at around 5650 as held, meaning the index has tapped… Read More

Pending home sales collapsed 38.60%, the largest annual drop ever.  Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge  That is the 6th straight month of pending home sales declines (and 12th of the last 13 months). On a year-over-year… Read More

A quick follow-up from my last observation when I said about the S&P 500; “If it breaks below 3,900 and fills the gap below that, then we’ll likely see more downside.”  The day after I… Read More

JP Morgan’s outlook focuses on three very different scenarios, with a baseline (40% probability) of seeing the building drag from an expected 5% fed funds rate and a rising US dollar as sufficient to tip… Read More

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers,… Read More

The Federal Reserve has been implementing Quantitative Easing (QT) to manipulate the money supply in the economy since 2008. It seems they’ve gone too far and should have stopped long ago, but they didn’t, so… Read More

Global bonds joined the the U.S. in signaling a recession, with a global yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades. Read More