Category: ASYMMETRY® Observations

The most famous investor sentiment quote is likely one from the Oracle of Omaha:  “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”  – Warren Buffett I’ve been monitoring investor sentiment since the… Read More

When the trends change direction, I change my direction. What do you do? That’s my version of the famous quote often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What… Read More

Over twenty years ago, someone asked me “how do you know your trend systems will be profitable if market conditions aren’t the same as they have been?” From that point, I started backtesting technical indicators… Read More

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1.9% this week, led by the materials sector. We’ve been studying and trading momentum for 25 years and always emphasize the basics.  These charts show the S&P 500… Read More

The six month trend of the S&P 500 stock market index says it all.  Mike Shell Read More

The more we mess around, the more we find out.  I got to messing around in a debate about all the people moving from northern states like New York, Illinois, and Connecticut to soutern states… Read More

Linear regression is a statistical method used to predict future trends from past data. Similar to a moving average, quantitative investment managers may use simple linear regression to define when prices or levels are too high… Read More

Shell Capital Management, LLC uses “technical indicators” to drive its trading systems for trend following and countertrend signals, and we are in great company.  What Is a Technical Indicator? “Technical indicators are heuristic or pattern-based… Read More

In yesterday’s U.S. Stock Market Trend Following as of February 18, 2023, I looked at the trend direction and historical realized volatility of the S&P 500 stock index. Let’s look at individual sector trends by expanding… Read More

If you’re an investor with hard earned money at stake, you need to know the current market state such as the trend, momentum, and volatility.  Even if we make our decisions systematically applying a rules-based… Read More