Category: ASYMMETRY® Observations

Volatility is how fast and wide prices spread out.  What is it?  The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX® ) is considered by many to be the world’s barometer of expected stock market volatility. The VIX Index is based… Read More

When I started studying tactical trading for investment portfolio management going on thirty years ago, one of my favorite books was New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems by J. Welles Wilder published in 1978 and written… Read More

Up until now, the trend S&P 500 index has failed to break above the 4200 level. I highlighted 4200 in yellow on the chart to point out the SPX has trended around 4200 several times… Read More

Mega-cap tech ( $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META ) outperformance and earnings growth show that mega-cap tech has outperformed the S&P 500 by 28pp in 2023. But as we show in Mega-cap Tech Stocks Market… Read More

S&P 500 fell 17% during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis.  Stocks with greatest sales exposure to US federal spending (highlighted in yellow) plunged by 25%.  The VIX expanded to 48.  Read More

Fed fund futures imply the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is done with rising rates.  They may not be, but.  The S&P 500 gained an average of 16% in the 12 months following the… Read More

Sometimes the markets tell us how to invest our money for asymmetric investment returns. It isn’t so much short-term rates are an indicator or precursor to a stock market decline, but instead, as the perceived… Read More

The regional banking sector remains under selling pressure.  We use the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index to represent the sector. The Index includes 50 stocks and is compiled, maintained and calculated by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.… Read More