Category: ASYMMETRY® Observations

The MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate) is a market-implied measure of bond volatility similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) for stocks. Some consider it fear in the bond market, as in uncertainty… Read More

Gold volatility is contracting; options are a better deal.  What is it? The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term… Read More

At Shell Capital, our focus is pure quantitative analysis of price trends, momentum, volatility, and how global markets interact with each other. When it comes to macroeconomics, I resource macro data from firms like our… Read More

How global capital markets interact with each other is one of the most useful parts of global macro.  US Dollar is in a downtrend but statistically oversold short-term. The dollars’ short-term relative strength hasn’t been… Read More

Probabilistically, what’s most likely to happen next is inertia; staying the same.   The second highest is continuing the recent trend.   The third is to reverse into a countertrend. The probability of what’s going… Read More

Macro is top of mind in market phases like this, when the Federal Reserve FOMC has been raising interest rates in response to evolving macroeconomic data to tame inflation.  Macro trends make investing more of… Read More

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, so we monitor macro indicators.  ISM Services Above Expectations Job Openings Below Expectations  … Read More

Americans celebrate Independence Day on July 4th to commemorate the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. This historic document was a formal statement by the American colonies announcing their separation from… Read More

We’ve seen notable improvement in the breadth of stocks participating in the uptrend across multiple time frames.  In the U.S. Sector Trend Following Matrix below we highlight the percentage of stocks above their 5, 20,… Read More

The NDR Elite Eight stocks (META, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA) now make up 28.4% of the S&P 500 market cap (top chart), while its share of earnings has dwindled to 17.2% (middle… Read More