Market Breadth Thrust: Bullish Percent Breakouts Signal Asymmetric Upside Potential

Market internals have flipped bullish—sharply. 

As of April 24, 2025, all three major Bullish Percent Indexes have confirmed significant upward reversals in participation, with the Nasdaq Bullish Percent exploding higher in a breadth thrust.

Here's what just happened and why it matters for identifying asymmetric opportunities in trend acceleration phases.

What Is a Bullish Percent Index?

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) measures the percentage of stocks within a given index that are currently on Point & Figure buy signals. It’s not about price—it’s about participation in an uptrend. These breadth indicators help us gauge the internal health of markets beneath the surface. It's what individual equities are doing. 

Each of these charts uses:

• 2% box size
• 3-box reversal
• Point & Figure charting to eliminate noise and focus on structural shifts
• Bullish signals triggered when a column of Xs exceeds the prior X column (a breakout in participation)

What the Data Shows

We now have fresh signals from all three core indexes:

$BPNYA – NYSE Bullish Percent Index

• Signal: Bull Alert triggered April 14, 2025
• Current Level: 46.56% Read: 46% of NYSE-listed stocks have signaled short-term uptrends. 
• Insight: Early-stage reversal from oversold levels (<30%) suggests broad market participation is beginning to recover—but still below the 50% threshold. This implies cautious optimism for NYSE-listed stocks, which are primarily value, dividend, and small/mid-cap. 

$BPSPX – S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

• Signal: Bull Confirmed on April 24, 2025
• Current Level: 61.60%  Read: 61% of S&P 500 stocks have signaled short-term uptrends. 
• Insight: Countertrends in large-cap U.S. stocks are now breaking out. This confirmation marks a transition from recovery to potential trend continuation in the broader U.S. equity index.

$BPNDX – Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index

• Signal: Bull Confirmed on April 24, 2025
• Current Level: 65.00% (up a staggering +12.07% in one day)
• Insight: This is the most aggressive signal—high-beta growth names in the Nasdaq 100 just posted a vertical surge in internal buy signals. Explosive convexity is taking shape in tech and innovation-heavy equities.

Comparison Table: Breadth Regime Shift

Asymmetric Insight: Countertrend Convexity Is Expanding

This is what asymmetric traders look for.

• In early trend reversal stages, breadth signals like Bull Alert ($BPNYA) hint that downside may be naturally limited while upside potential opens up. (For true asymmetric risk/reward, downside isn't capped without a predefined exit or through options.) 
• In bull confirmed phases ($BPSPX, $BPNDX), the number of stocks generating buy signals is accelerating—a positive feedback loop.
• The Nasdaq 100’s explosive 12% breadth thrust may serve as a leading indicator for broader market risk appetite, offering convex setups in tech and growth.

For investors and traders seeking asymmetry by identifying trends early and capitalizing on them until they change, these are fertile conditions: the downside may be naturally limited, can be truly capped with a predetermined exit, and upside participation is expanding.

We now have confirmation across large-cap, tech, and broad market indexes. This isn't a prediction—it's a shift in internal structure. When multiple Bullish Percent Indexes confirm strength simultaneously, it may be the start of something bigger.

Shell Capital pursues asymmetric investment returns by actively managing risk and dynamically adapting to evolving market regimes. I've been monitoring Bullish Percents for nearly thirty years now, but they aren't the only indicators we use to signal trends. It's one of many methods we use to weigh the evidence. For example, I shared on April 7th the stock market was washed out in "Market Breadth Collapse Intensifies: Monitoring for Countertrend Setups with Asymmetric Risk/Reward."

After we've de-risked the possibility of loss as we did in February (see Weakening Trend, Options Expiry, and Systematic Flows Create an Asymmetric Risk-Reward Skewed to the Downside), our next move is to look for selling pressure to dry up and buying demand to take over. 

Mike Shell

Mike Shell is the founder and chief investment officer of Shell Capital Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of ASYMMETRY® Managed Portfolios, a separately managed account program with trade execution and custody at Goldman Sachs Custody Solutions. Mike Shell and Shell Capital Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor focused on asymmetric risk-reward and absolute return strategies, and profivides investment advice and portfolio management only to clients with a signed and executed investment management agreement. The observations shared on this website are for general information only and should not be construed as investment advice to buy or sell any security. This information does not suggest in any way that any graph, chart, or formula offered can solely guide an investor as to which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Securities reflected are not intended to represent any client holdings or recommendations made by the firm. In the event any past specific recommendations are referred to inadvertently, a list of all recommendations made by the company within at least the prior one-year period may be furnished upon request. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities on the list. Any opinions expressed may change as subsequent conditions change. Please do not make any investment decisions based on such information, as it is not advice and is subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal an investor must be willing to bear. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information and data are deemed reliable but are not guaranteed and should be independently verified. The presence of this website on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way raise an implication that Shell Capital Management, LLC is offering to sell or soliciting to sell advisory services to residents of any state in which the firm is not registered as an investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in ASYMMETRY® Observations and Asymmetric Investment Returns are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of Shell Capital Management, LLC. The use of this website is subject to its terms and conditions.