Goldman Sachs has lowered its probability for a US recessions further, giving just a 20% chance of recession.

How global capital markets interact with each other is one of the most useful parts of global macro. US Dollar is in a downtrend but statistically oversold short-term.

Probabilistically, what's most likely to happen next is inertia; staying the same. The second highest is continuing the recent trend. The third is to reverse into a countertrend.

Macro is top of mind in market phases like this, when the Federal Reserve FOMC has been raising interest rates in response evolving macroeconomic data to tame inflation.

Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, so we monitor macro indicators.

Americans celebrate Independence Day on July 4th to commemorate the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. This historic document was a formal statement by the American colonies announcing their separation from Great Britain and their intention to establish a new nation, the United States of America.