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Asymmetric Investment Returns

Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.

Mastering Investment Risk Management: Leveraging the Relationship Between VIX and SPX Options

October 16, 2024

The relationship between the VIX and SPX options is a cornerstone of effective risk management in trading and investment. By understanding this dynamic, traders can better anticipate market movements, implement strategic hedging techniques, and optimize their portfolios for changing volatility conditions. Monitoring market indicators and employing various trading strategies based on this relationship can significantly enhance your risk management practices.

Understanding Long-Term Yields: Key Factors Influencing the Curve for Asymmetric Investment Returns

October 14, 2024

For asymmetric investment returns, when examining the yields on the long end of the yield curve, it's essential to consider three critical factors: growth expectations, inflation expectations, and term premium. Each of these elements plays a significant role in determining the equilibrium yield for long-term bonds.

Why are Long Term U.S. Treasuries Trending Down When the Fed is Lowering Interest Rates?

October 13, 2024

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering interest rates, the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index has declined -7.2% from its recent peak a few weeks ago.

Understanding Today's VIX Futures Term Structure: Market Insights and Trading Implications

October 10, 2024

Today, the VIX futures term structure offers some intriguing signals, particularly with its current shape and slope. Let’s dive into what the term structure is telling us and what it might mean for traders and investors.

What the Fear & Greed Index is Telling Us Today—and How It Can Be Used for Tactical Trading and Risk Management

October 7, 2024

What the Fear & Greed Index is Telling Us Today—and How It Can Be Used for Tactical Trading and Risk Management

Why "It Hasn't Happened in 100 Years" Doesn't Mean It Won't Happen: The Case of Milton and Tampa Bay

October 6, 2024

As Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa Bay, it’s crucial to break free from the false belief that long stretches without an event mean safety. While it’s comforting to think that the past protects us, probability tells a different story. Each year carries its own risk, and the fact that Tampa Bay hasn’t had a direct hit in over a century doesn’t mean one isn’t coming.