Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
Shell Capital Management, LLC, is celebrating its twentieth anniversary. Shell Capital was founded by Mike Shell in August 2004.
Quantitative mathematical measures of price trends are probabilistic, never a sure thing, so we use these gauges like a windsock, knowing the sector is now at an inflection point of trending back up and resuming the primary uptrend, or watching for indications of a new deeper, longer lasting downtrend.
The longevity of large, established companies can often be overestimated due to a natural lifecycle many organizations follow, similar to the product lifecycle. Large companies that have enjoyed decades of success and market dominance can become more vulnerable as they grow because of inertia, structural complexity, and resistance to change—factors that can make them slow to adapt to evolving technologies, market demands, or shifts in consumer behavior.
With the Fed holding rates at 23-year highs as part of its restrictive policy stance, the US Treasury has had to issue more debt to fund government expenditures. The higher the US’s coupon payments become, the greater barrier it presents to economic growth and stimulating government spending.
The scientific method is a systematic process used to gather knowledge and test hypotheses through observation, experimentation, and analysis. In investment portfolio management, the scientific method can be applied to improve decision-making, manage risk, and enhance returns.
Becoming complacent and basking in past success is a problem for active investment managers, driven by constant discussions of past performance. Every new potential investor primarily asks what we've done in the past, when they should instead focus on how we did it, and if the strategies, tactics, and performances seem likely to repeat in the future.