Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
The latest report on the U.S. economy provides insights into the strength of the services sector and manufacturing activity amid ongoing tariff uncertainties. The ISM Services Index saw an uptick, while factory orders aligned with expectations, offering a mixed economic signal. Here’s what investors need to know.
Howard Marks has a unique ability to distill complex market dynamics into clear, actionable insights, and his latest memo, "On Bubble Watch," is no exception. It’s a powerful reminder of the importance of recognizing the telltale signs of a market bubble, the psychology driving it, and the necessary caution that comes with it.
Ray Dalio and Elon Musk see the U.S. debt problem for what it is: an unsustainable ticking time bomb. They aren’t just speculating—they’re using decades of experience in finance, economics, and business to sound the alarm.
Today, as we find ourselves in one of the tightest credit spread environments in decades, it's worth asking: Are investors underpricing risk, and does this present an asymmetric opportunity?
A robust asymmetric trading system isn’t one that just works; it’s one that reliably produces asymmetry across different market conditions while maintaining an edge. Positive expectation, repeatability, and adaptability.
Weakening trend strength, the expiration of massive options positions, and looming systematic flows have created an asymmetric risk-reward setup where downside risks outweigh near-term upside potential.