facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause

Asymmetric Investment Returns

Why "It Hasn't Happened in 100 Years" Doesn't Mean It Won't Happen: The Case of Milton and Tampa Bay Thumbnail

Why "It Hasn't Happened in 100 Years" Doesn't Mean It Won't Happen: The Case of Milton and Tampa Bay

As Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa Bay, it’s crucial to break free from the false belief that long stretches without an event mean safety. While it’s comforting to think that the past protects us, probability tells a different story. Each year carries its own risk, and the fact that Tampa Bay hasn’t had a direct hit in over a century doesn’t mean one isn’t coming.

Read More
When Probability Conflicts with Robust Risk Management Thumbnail

When Probability Conflicts with Robust Risk Management

Probability theory is a powerful tool that helps us understand the likelihood of events. However, when it comes to managing risks in real life—whether in finance, business, or disaster preparedness—simply understanding the probabilities of events isn't enough. Robust risk management often focuses on preparing for worst-case scenarios, not just the most likely ones. Here’s why pure probability sometimes conflicts with smart risk management.

Read More