Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
This chart of the S&P Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) includes a linear regression channel, RSI, and ATR percentage indicators to analyze its current trend, momentum, and volatility.
In "We Will Soon Find Out," Ray Dalio explores what he sees as a pivotal moment in the U.S.'s political and social trajectory, which he frames through his theory of the "Big Cycle." According to Dalio, the country is in "Stage 5" of this cycle, where internal divisions and systemic stresses are high, and he suggests we are on the cusp of "Stage 6," a period he associates with civil war or intense societal upheaval.
Understanding how presidential administrations influence economic indicators is key to assessing their impact on American prosperity and stability. The chart provided compares various economic metrics under the Trump and Biden administrations, spanning inflation, wage growth, income metrics, job growth, deficits, and other critical factors. This article provides an analysis of these data points, emphasizing the contrast in economic performance and policy outcomes between the two administrations.
The recent VIX term structure chart reveals interesting insights into market sentiment around volatility heading into the 2024 U.S. election. Currently, we observe an initial drop in volatility expectations for December, followed by a steady rise through mid-2025. This structure suggests that while traders anticipate relatively calm conditions immediately surrounding the election, they expect volatility to pick up significantly afterward.
In 2024 U.S. corporate stock buybacks have reached unprecedented levels, making them an essential consideration for investment managers pursuing asymmetric returns. The latest insights from Goldman Sachs reveal that buyback activity, led by U.S. corporates, remains a significant force in the equity markets, promising to influence the market dynamics through year-end and beyond.
In the ongoing debate between active and passive management, there is a clear divergence in performance between equities and fixed income. Recent data reveals how active management excels in the bond market, presenting a strong case for investors aiming to achieve asymmetric risk/return profiles.