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Asymmetric Investment Returns

U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Plummets  Thumbnail

U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index Plummets

This analysis can be helpful in assessing current bond market volatility expectations, especially when correlated with broader market conditions or other volatility indices, like the VIX for equities. Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into specific aspects.

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Navigating Asymmetric Risks in Unstable Times: Insights from Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle Framework Thumbnail

Navigating Asymmetric Risks in Unstable Times: Insights from Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle Framework

In "We Will Soon Find Out," Ray Dalio explores what he sees as a pivotal moment in the U.S.'s political and social trajectory, which he frames through his theory of the "Big Cycle." According to Dalio, the country is in "Stage 5" of this cycle, where internal divisions and systemic stresses are high, and he suggests we are on the cusp of "Stage 6," a period he associates with civil war or intense societal upheaval.

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