Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
You wouldn’t know it from watching the VIX index alone, but something interesting is happening beneath the surface. The VIX futures curve — the structure that really drives volatility-linked products like VXX, VIXY, and UVXY — is showing signs of indecision. Here's what it means for asymmetric hedging.
Discover how the latest S&P 500 Equal Weight Sector Dashboard reveals asymmetric opportunities for investors. Learn why equal weight indices may outperform cap-weighted benchmarks in the current regime, how factor tilts like size and value create imbalance, and how dispersion and concentration risk impact portfolio heat. This analysis explores sector rotation, volatility, and factor exposures—through the lens of Shell Capital’s ASYMMETRY® investment strategy.
Discover asymmetric investment insights from the March 2025 S&P Dispersion, Volatility & Correlation Dashboard. Learn how elevated volatility, low dispersion, and rising global correlations create opportunities for volatility reversion trades, convex option strategies, and portfolio-level asymmetry. Explore how small caps, emerging markets, and tactical hedging may offer defined-risk setups with exponential upside.
Institutional fund flows, futures positioning data, and ETF rotation trends may help reveal where market participants are concentrated—and where asymmetric opportunities could emerge. By analyzing institutional fund flows and futures positioning across asset classes, we may identify regime shifts, crowded trades, and potential setups offering convexity, optionality, and favorable asymmetry with predefined risk and exponential upside.
Many options-based funds like Buffered, Overlay, and Defined Outcome ETFs promise downside protection with upside potential—but most fail to deliver true asymmetry. Here's why.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets U.S. monetary policy by adjusting interest rates, unanimously voted to keep the fed funds rate in the 4.25%–4.5% range in March. The most notable change in the post-meeting statement was the addition of a new clause: “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” It's an illusion of asymmetric insight.